Curricula Guides

Uusi opinto-opas (sisältäen myös opetusohjelmat) lukuvuodelle 2018-2019 sijaitsee osoitteessa . Tältä sivustolta löytyvät enää vanhat opinto-oppaat ja opetusohjelmat.

The new study guide (incl. teaching schedules) for academic year 2018-2019 can be found at This site contains only previous years' guides.

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Archived Curricula Guide 2014–2016
Curricula Guide is archieved. Please refer to current Curricula Guides
FUTS2243 FUTU2 Scenario Thinking 4 ECTS
Organised by
Futures Studies
Person in charge
Sirkka Heinonen
Planned organizing times
Period(s) I II III IV
2014–2015 X
2015–2016 X
Preceding studies

Learning outcomes

Students are able to apply the principles of scenario building. Students are able to identify and evaluate the development of trends. Based on environmental scanning, students are able to construct scenarios. Students are able to differentiate between various classifications of scenarios and to use different methods critical to scenario building.


The course is divided into four parts. The first part is scenario thinking in the context of strategic decision making. The second is how to gather data for scenario processes by using environmental scanning, the futures wheel method, creating futures table, finding weak signals and analyzing black swans and wild cards. The third part consists of how to create scenarios by assessing the
importance and the level of uncertainty by particularly exploring Shell scenarios to illustrate the case. The fourth part is how to move from scenarios to decision making. The objective of the course is to provide students with sufficient theoretical and practical understanding to use the scenario approach. This means that students will go through an intensive learning process where they are challenged to use scenario methods in various circumstances.

Teaching methods

Teaching method Contact Online
Lectures 10 h 0 h
Independent work

Teaching language


Modes of study

Option 1
Available for:
  • Degree Programme Students
  • Other Students
  • Doctoral Students
  • Exchange Students
Written exam
  • In English
  • In English

The final grade of the course consist of a written exam based on the lectures and literature (50%) and a written group assignment based on literature and supplementary material (50%).


Numeric 0-5.

Recommended year of study

1st year

Study materials

1.Ralston, Bill; Wilson, Ian, The scenario-planning handbook a practitioner´s guide to developing and using scenarios to direct strategy in today´s uncertain times. Mason, Thomson South-Western 2006.

2.Schwartz, Peter, The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. New York, Currency Doubleday 1996. (chapters on scenarios, details at the beginning of the course).

3.Van Der Hejden, Kees, Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Chichester, John Wiley & Sons 2005.

4.Millennium project – Futures Research Methodology V3.0 cd

5.Scenario method: Current developments in theory and practice, eds. Wright, George; Cairns, George; Bradfield, Ron, Technological Foresight and Social Change 80(4) 2013.  

6. Shell energy scenarios to 2050 and current articles and reports.

Belongs to following study modules

Finland Futures Research Centre
Futures Studies: courses lectured in English (Futures Studies (Field of Business))
Turku School of Economics
Futures Studies: courses lectured in English (Futures Studies (Field of Business))
Turku School of Economics
Finland Futures Research Centre
Archived Teaching Schedule. Please refer to current Teaching Shedule.
Implementation details are unavailable.
Finland Futures Research Centre
MDP in Futures Studies (MA)
Futures Studies (Field of Business)