Curricula Guides

Uusi opinto-opas (sisältäen myös opetusohjelmat) lukuvuodelle 2018-2019 sijaitsee osoitteessa . Tältä sivustolta löytyvät enää vanhat opinto-oppaat ja opetusohjelmat.

The new study guide (incl. teaching schedules) for academic year 2018-2019 can be found at This site contains only previous years' guides.

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Archived Curricula Guide 2016–2018
Curricula Guide is archieved. Please refer to current Curricula Guides
FUTS2243 FUTU2 Scenario Thinking 4 ECTS
Organised by
Futures Studies
Person in charge
Sirkka Heinonen
Planned organizing times
Period(s) I II III IV
2016–2017 X
2017–2018 X
Preceding studies

Learning outcomes

Students are able to apply the principles of scenario building. Students are able to identify and evaluate the development of trends. Based on environmental scanning, students are able to construct scenarios. Students are able to differentiate between various classifications of scenarios and to use different methods critical to scenario building.


The course is divided into learning about various scenario techniques and into concrete steps for constructing scenarios as group assignment. First scenario thinking is highlighted in the context of strategic decision making. Data gathering for scenario processes is made by using horizon scanning, uncertainty/impact matrix, futures table, identifying weak signals and swans/ wild cards. The objective of the course is to provide students with sufficient theoretical and practical understanding to use the scenario approach and make tentative scenarios. The students will go through an intensive learning process where they are challenged to construct scenarios for a case company. An optional session is offered where the stduents can present their work to the company and get feedback.

Teaching methods

Teaching method Contact Online
Lectures 10 h 0 h
Group work
Independent work

Optional 2 hour feedback session with case company

Teaching language


Modes of study

Option 1
Available for:
  • Degree Programme Students
  • Other Students
  • Doctoral Students
  • Exchange Students
  • In English

The final grade of the course consists of assignments during class, a written group assignment (scenario work) and individual essay based on literature and supplementary material.


Numeric 0-5.

Recommended year of study

1st year

Study materials

1. Ralston, Bill; Wilson, Ian, The scenario-planning handbook a practitioner´s guide to developing and using scenarios to direct strategy in today´s uncertain times. Mason, Thomson South-Western 2006. (Part 1 Chapters 1-3; Part 2 Chapters 5-7; Part 3 Chapters 11-13; Part 4 Chapters 15-18).

2. Schwartz, Peter, The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. New York, Currency Doubleday 1996. (Introduction, Pathfinder’s tale, Scenario-building animal, Creating Scenario Building Blocks, Appendix).

3. Van Der Hejden, Kees, Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Chichester, John Wiley & Sons 2005. (Part 1 & Part 2)

4. Millennium project – Futures Research Methodology V3.0 cd (chapter on scenarios)

5. Scenario method: Current developments in theory and practice, eds. Wright, George; Cairns.

Further study material to be handed out during the course.

Belongs to following study modules

Turku School of Economics
Futures Studies: courses lectured in English (Futures Studies (Field of Business))
Turku School of Economics
Finland Futures Research Centre
Finland Futures Research Centre
Archived Teaching Schedule. Please refer to current Teaching Shedule.
Implementation details are unavailable.
Finland Futures Research Centre
Futures Studies (Field of Business)